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Regardless of already having a few of the most restrictive virus measures within the nation, Gov. Gavin Newsom mentioned yesterday that the state might need to take “drastic motion” to sluggish the unfold of the virus, together with full stay-at-home orders, which might come inside the subsequent couple of days.
Already, 99 p.c of residents live underneath an in a single day curfew that bars them from leaving their properties for nonessential journeys after 10 p.m. Los Angeles lately went additional and banned gatherings with different households, whereas a ban on contact sports activities in Santa Clara County has pressured the San Francisco 49ers to play dwelling video games in Arizona.
Nonetheless, the numbers proceed to soar. Governor Newsom warned that with so many sick sufferers, intensive care items may very well be overloaded by the center of December, and its hospitals may very well be dangerously near full by Christmas. The state can also be going through a scarcity of nurses.
As my colleagues Thomas Fuller and Manny Fernandez report, regardless of its dimension and financial energy, California has one of many nation’s lowest variety of hospital beds relative to its inhabitants, with simply 1.8 hospital beds per 1,000 folks. California has one-third the variety of beds per capita of, for instance, Poland, and solely two states have fewer beds for residents, Washington and Oregon.
With the pandemic raging throughout the nation, California might not be capable to depend on different states for its catastrophe planning, because it did when hundreds of firefighters traveled to place out its mega-fires.
“You need to consider this as a pure catastrophe, like an earthquake — there’s quite a lot of want for hospitalization,” mentioned George Rutherford, a professor of epidemiology on the College of California, San Francisco. “However the distinction right here is that it’s taking place throughout the nation. We will’t ship folks to Reno, Phoenix or Tucson. We’re caught.”
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When will I get a vaccine?
A Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention committee met right this moment and voted on steerage about who ought to get the vaccine first. Their suggestion: Well being care staff ought to obtain the primary doses, together with residents of nursing properties and of long-term care amenities. The C.D.C. director will determine by Wednesday whether or not to simply accept the advice.
However the company doesn’t have the ultimate say. The distribution of the vaccine is as much as particular person states, and so they don’t should observe C.D.C. recommendation (as we’ve seen with masks or journey restrictions). Nonetheless, consultants say that almost all states in all probability will.
For perception into the vaccine rollout, and if you may get the vaccine, I turned to Carl Zimmer, a science author for The Instances.
We now know who the C.D.C. says ought to get the vaccine first, however who’s subsequent in line?
We gained’t know till the advisory committee votes once more later this month. But it surely’s probably that the subsequent group in line will likely be important staff — firefighters, police and so forth. After which after that, it could be folks over 65, and other people with comorbidities like diabetes, weight problems, most cancers that put them at excessive threat of dying or extreme illness.
When ought to most of the people count on a vaccine?
No one needs to be marking their calendar with “Vaccine Day.” However I believe it might be affordable to count on that most of the people could be getting vaccines in Might or June.
Is that the time-frame with out different vaccines coming into the market?
It should positively take longer to vaccinate the U.S. with simply Pfizer and Moderna than with Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca. However there are additionally two different vaccines which might be going to enter late-stage medical trials in all probability this month. One is from Sanofi, one is from Novavax. If their outcomes come via shortly, and if all the pieces appears to be like good to the F.D.A., they may very well be additionally including their vaccines to the availability, that will pace issues up as nicely.
So after I’m vaccinated, can I simply return to regular life?
No. Sorry. You possibly can’t. To start with, you’re going to wish two pictures. After your first shot, you’re not totally vaccinated. Second of all, after your second shot it’s going to take awhile so that you can get most immunity. Third of all, we don’t know but if these vaccines merely forestall folks from getting the signs of Covid or really cease the unfold of the virus from one particular person to the subsequent. They could, however we don’t know. So you don’t want to be strolling round feeling fantastic and respiration viruses throughout individuals who haven’t gotten vaccinated but, or individuals who can’t get vaccinated.
Any ideas, then, on when regular life will return?
That is an expertise that none of us has gone via earlier than, so we’re not going to get the form of exact timetable that we would need. However Tony Fauci has talked about life getting again to regular by late 2021. However that comes with a giant asterisk — that timetable will depend upon at the least 75 p.c of the nation getting vaccinated promptly.
Resurgences
Right here’s a roundup of restrictions in all 50 states.
What else we’re following
What you’re doing
My husband of 27 years and I acquired our remaining divorce paper a month in the past. After touring for 2 years in Europe, I used to be grounded by the pandemic and moved to a rental 20 minutes away from our small Pennsylvania home. Despite the fact that the ex and I discovered that we will’t reside underneath the identical roof collectively, we admitted that we’re each lonely on this pandemic and began making native health dates with one another: soccer, strolling, or swimming as a “household bubble” on the Y in a single lane. We then determined to take pleasure in Friday pizza evenings collectively and Sunday supper on the home. I like to see the cats, use the hearth, and realized my ex can use a bit of assist operating the home. Despite the fact that we nonetheless annoy one another in the identical methods, we discovered that this unusual new state of affairs gave us a solution to develop a brand new friendship. And we not really feel lonely.
— Danielle Lehtinen, Scranton, Pa.
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Carole Landry contributed to right this moment’s publication.
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